Fears of unrest and partition grip Madagascar

SABC 28.04.2002

The people of Madagascar were on tenterhooks today on the eve of the expected return to the country of Didier Ratsiraka, the President, amid a deepening political crisis that carried the threat of partition and even civil war. Advisors to Ratsiraka said he would be returning to the island early tomorrow, following a week-long private visit to France.

He was due to return not to the capital but to his provincial stronghold of Toamisina, where he was due to give a speech. Much anticipation surrounded what Ratsiraka would say about his associates' threats to form an independent state on the island if Marc Ravalomanana, the maverick politician and businessman, was declared president on Monday on the basis of a recount following a December election.

Ravalomanana, the mayor of the capital Antananarivo, unilaterally declared himself head of state in February, saying initial results that called for a second round runoff with Ratsiraka had been rigged against him.

"Ratsiraka is certainly a little troubled by the belligerent declarations of the provincial governors, in particular the threats to declare the provinces independent," opined one of Ratsiraka's close advisers. However these threats "had the good effect of calming things down in Ravalomanana's camp, which must be pondering the risks of declaring him president on Monday".

Ratsiraka's camp believes that the High Constitutional Court (HCC), which is due to deliver a second result of the election on Monday, is illegal. Four of its members, a majority, took part in Ravalomanana's "swearing-in ceremony" in February. Fearing that the HCC will announce Ravalomanana the election's outright winner, Ratsiraka's associates have threatened to step up a blockade of Antananarivo and to declare the independence of at least three of the country's six provinces.

Under a deal signed April 18 in Dakar, Senegal by both protagonists, all roadblocks were meant to have been removed from the Indian Ocean island state. In the event of no clear winner being announced by the HCC's fresh results, the Dakar deal called for a transitional government to be set up so as to organise a referendum to decide who will be Madagascar's next president. There is a widespread conviction in Antananarivo that Ratsiraka and Ravalomanana secretly agreed in Dakar to take this path and some observers believe that Ravalomanana's camp is now reneging on this secret deal and pushing the HCC to declare their man president.

In such a tense climate, many in Madagascar now expect serious violence to break out. Since yesterday, pro-Ravalomanana media have increased calls for vigilance, hinting that Ratsiraka's camp were plotting to further destabilise the country.

"That both sides are insisting that the HCC will declare Ravalomanana president leads me to be reasonably hopeful that it is just a lure to give the people a new sense of relief when the commission rules that there was no outright winner," said one optimistic foreign observer. As Monday's announcement looms, all eyes are on Toamasina airport, where Ratsiraka is due to arrive tomorrow morning, to be welcomed by supporters bussed in by local authorities. - Sapa-AFP