New twist to Madagascar

News2429.04.2002

Antananarivo - Outgoing President Didier Ratsiraka has demanded Madagascar's bitter leadership dispute be resolved by referendum, and warned he would not recognise an upcoming court ruling on the contested presidential poll.

His hardline stance, conveyed to reporters soon after he arrived back in the country after more than a week in France, has deepened Madagascar's political crisis, and heightens the threat of the country being divided or plunging into civil war.

"For me, if we want national reconciliation, the people must make their choice by means of a referendum," said Ratsiraka.

Such a referendum, Ratsiraka said, was envisaged in a reconciliation deal he had signed in Dakar on April 18 with his rival for the presidency, maverick politician Marc Ravalomanana.

The pact signed in Dakar stipulates that the first step in reconciling the two Madagascan rivals is a recount of the vote by the high constitutional court (HCC).

Initial results from the December vote, announced by the HCC in January, called for a runoff vote between the two men.

On April 10, Madagascar's supreme court invalidated the composition of the HCC, composed of judges loyal to Ratsiraka, and reinstated an earlier version of the court, comprised of members, coincidentally, more favourable to Ravalomanana. Days later, the court ordered a recount of the December vote.

All roadblocks to be removed

Under the Dakar deal, in the event of the recount producing no clear winner, a transitional government will be set up, with one of its chief tasks being to to organise a referendum within six months to decide who will be Madagascar's next president.

The accord also calls for the immediate removal of all the roadblocks erected by Ratsiraka's backers after Ravalomana unilaterally declared himself president of the Indian Ocean island nation in February, insisting he had won the election outright, with 53 percent of the vote.

Ratsiraka said on Sunday he did not recognise the HCC, which he described as "illegal".

The president's backers have warned that, should the HCC declare Ravalomanana president, they will step up a blockade of Antananarivo and declare the independence of at least three of the country's six provinces.

The hardline stance taken by the Ratsiraka side has fuelled tensions in Madagascar, where many now expect the stand-off between the two men will spill over into serious violence.

Since Friday, pro-Ravalomanana media have increased calls for vigilance, hinting that Ratsiraka's camp was plotting to further destabilise the country.

'Why did the president sign?'

Observers on Sunday attributed the obstinacy of the Ratsiraka side to a verbal agreement allegedly struck between the president and Ravalomanana on the sidelines of the Dakar talks.

According to analysts, that secondary agreement stipulates that the roadblocks would be dismantled only if Ravalomanana's rival administration, led by "prime minister" Jacques Sylla, wwa dissolved.

"The main blockade is Sylla's government," Ratsiraka has said.

A Ratsiraka aide said the president had said the "dissolution of Sylla's government was at the heart of the (verbal) agreement."

But that begs the question of why Ratsiraka signed the Dakar accord, which, while spelling out a step-by-step return to normalcy in Madagascar, does not provide for Ravalomanana's rival government to be dissolved.

"The question is, why did he sign in Dakar? Why didn't he include the automatic dissolution of Sylla's government? Why did he accept a recount by the revamped HCC?" asked one foreign Madagascar-watcher.

"By invoking an unwritten agreement to contradict a written one, Ratsiraka runs the risk of being considered by the international community as having reneged on the contract," said the foreign expert. - Sapa-AFP