MADAGASCAR: Truce in Peril

James Hall

ANTANANARIVO (IPS 30.04.2002) - The peace deal brokered in Dakar, Senegal between rival claimants for victory in last December's presidential election, incumbent Didier Ratsiraka and challenger and former Antananarivo mayor Marc Ravalomanana, failed to find implementation in the divided island nation during the week following the accord's signing.

''The politically divided island may just end up permanently atomized into five autonomous provinces, and that could be the legacy of this disputed election,'' says an African diplomat whose portfolio includes the continent's Indian Ocean nations.

The governor of Toliara province in the southwest and the governor of the Antsiranana province in the north threatened at week's end to declare independence if Ratsiraka is not declared the election victor.

Jean de Dier Maharante, governor of Toliara, said he could not legally back secessionist moves, ''but if Ravalomanana's camp continues to behave illegally, the independence of the provinces is a risk.''

This would be the ultimate outcome of an ipso facto civil war that ensued following Ravalomanana's rejection of a Ratsiraka- appointed High Constitutional Court ruling that failed to give him an outright majority at the polls, which he claims to have won.

Ravalomanana appointed himself president in February, and set up a rival government to Ratsiraka, who retreated to the port city of Taomasina, his political base.

Ratsiraka ordered a blockade of Antananarivo, which required the destruction of major highways and effectively ended all commercial and industrial activity in the country, and well as shattering the agriculture sector at harvest time.

All conflict was to have ended last week. Ravalomanana agreed to suspend his government and take a supporting role for Ratsiraka. The incumbent would serve as president for six months more, unless he won a runoff election if this was call by a new High Constitutional Court.

Immediately following the Dakar accord, the court began recounting the December ballots. ''We count again the votes of each candidate - a big task, but we must do it. It's an independent court and what we say is valuable,'' the court spokesperson, Samuel Ralison, told a news conference on the first day of the recount.

Ratsiraka appointed all five provincial governors, but political observers say their loyalty to the incumbent may be less than their ambition to rule breakaway states. Parliamentarians and government officials loyal to Ratsiraka also have spoken in favor of provincial successions.

Increasing talks of succession for Ratsiraka-supporting provinces has led one political observer to suggest, ''Ratsiraka would prefer to rule over half a country than no country at all.''

A mixture of races and cultures, Madagascar was divided into its current provinces by French colonial authorities in 1895 to provide different ethnic groups and economic classes with their own homelands.

Within a day of the Dakar agreement, it was apparent that neither contender would abide by the provisions. Ravalomanana appointed his own governor for the Fianarantsoa province. While he is no longer calling himself the nation's president, his rival government remained in place.

Ratsiraka's supporters have not removed roadblocks or permitted supplies to the capital, which increasingly resembles a city under siege.

At stake is not only the future of Madagascar as a unified country, but also the prospects for an economic development initiative pushed by South Africa and other major African nations: the New Partnership for African Development (NEPAD).

The initiative calls for developed nations in the West to continue to provide economic assistance, but to stay out of African politics. National and cross border conflicts as well as the shoring up of democratic institutions would be done by African states themselves.

The week in which high-stakes mediation to end conflict in the Democratic Republic of Congo failed to reap results in South Africa, the presidents of Senegal, Mozambique, Benin and Ivory Coast could report success in their brokering of the Madagascar deal.

Amara Essay, secretary general of the Organization of African Unity, which twice failed to broker a Madagascan peace deal before the Dakar agreement, at a news conference, nearly pleaded with the Madagascan people to heed the accord.

''This is a country, which is losing 15 million U.S. dollars a day because of a paralyzed economy, which was growing at 7 percent,'' he added.

Some 150,000 jobs also have been lost, according to the World Bank. The bank reports that three-quarters of the country's 14 million people are malnourished. Worse, a UN official told Radio Madagascar that aid agencies estimate that 7500 children and 400 women have died due to starvation or the breakdown of health services on the island since the election-related conflict commenced.

A group of ten non-governmental organizations (NGOs) released a report that bleakly predicted, ''If the crisis continues and means of communication remain blocked, thousands of mothers and children will continue to die in silence, and we won't even know.''

Amnesty International has come down hard on both sides of the conflict for carrying out killings and tortures of opponents.

In its report on the crisis, the London-based organization said, ''The turbulence which has characterized the political situation in Madagascar in the past months has unleashed a wave of human rights violations which the outside world has largely ignored.''

The world is increasingly noticing the conflict in Madagascar and African heads of state are banking their prestige on a peaceful outcome.

But with the signatories of the Dakar agreement unwilling to abide by its provisions - at the weekend the blockade of the capital remained in place as obstinately as Ravalomanana's government - peace may come at the price of a permanently fragmented nation.